The AFC South is looking to be the weakest of all the divisions this year. Jacksonville and Houston look like total dumpster fires, Tennessee has a ton of question marks after their offseason, and Indianapolis just announced that Carson Wentz is having surgery on his foot injury*
*Note: my season predictions were made before the Wentz news, I'm going to stick with them for the sake of consistency.
So let's take a look at the chaotic landscape that is the AFC South.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars have once again wiped their slate clean, beginning yet another rebuild attempt. Urban Meyer takes over the helm as Head Coach, and Trevor Lawrence is the teams latest dart to throw at the franchise QB board. The offense has some talent at the skill positions, but the defense is a curious unit to me. I'm not sure whether I can assume they'll be good based on some of their talent... or if they'll be a let down per usual. Either way, I'm seeing another rough year in Duval County.
Record prediction: 2-15, 3rd in the AFC South
Offense: As I mentioned in the open, Trevor Lawrence comes to town as the Jaguars perceived prodigal son. It seems that everyone is expecting a seamless transition from Clemson to the NFL for Lawrence just because of his talent alone. Personally, I find this hard to believe. Things were looked so easy for Trevor in college that I don't know how he'll handle taking the reigns of a franchise that has been a consistent laughing stock for years. He just hasn't seen that much adversity, dating back to his days in high school where I don't believe he lost a single game. Maybe Lawrence is just that good, but I'm worried that a small losing streak could cause some heavy damage on his psyche throughout the year. Thankfully, he's got some good pieces around him to help him out.
D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault sounds like a really underrated receiving core to me. This group should, and would be getting more attention if they were in a bigger market, especially with how the national media loves to pump up the head coach and QB. I'm really hoping I can snag Shenault, considered a 3rd WR, in a late round of my fantasy drafts this year, that's how much I think of them.
The RB group also looks very dynamic. I don't think it was the wisest move for the Jags to take Travis Etienne as high in the draft as they did, but the argument about giving Lawrence a target he has ultra familiarity with is a good one in my mind. Normally the cliche is that the tight ends are a rookie QB's best friend, but Etienne will probably end up being Lawrence's best friend this season.
This will seem like a throwaway line, but I really don't know much about the O-line in order to comment on it. I think they're ok? I mean Gardner Minshew and Jake Luton survived behind them last year, but I don't see any reason to believe this unit is elite.
Defense: I'm really torn on this side of the ball for Jacksonville. There looks to be a lot of talent at face value, but it's HEAVY in the linebacking group. Myles Jack, Josh Allen, K'Lavon Chaisson and even Joe Schobert sounds like a really stout quartet. The concern I have is if this group will be able to do enough to cover up for a lack of talent on the line, while not sacrificing their ability to cover opposing Tight Ends.
Speaking of the defensive line... yikes. I don't even know who these guys are. Malcolm Brown was bound to be cut by the Saints if they couldn't find a trade partner, which is never a great sign. Roy Robertson-Harris was picked up as a free agent after Chicago had to let him walk; I don't even know if I ever heard his name called last year for the Bears before he went on the IR in November. Finally, Taven Bryan, the final project starter, is on the non-football injury list for what? We don't know. So not starting the year off great with this unit. Here's hoping they surprise me!
The secondary is headlined by offseason acquisition Shaquill Griffin, coming over from Seattle. The loss of Griffin may hurt the Seahawks, but may not help the Jaguars. What I mean by that is looking at the history of Seattle's CBs, they have never performed as well outside of the PNW as they do while with the Seahawks. If Griffin can be anything close to lock-down corner the rest of this unit could have a lot of room to grow and work, but I just don't know if I see it happening. This is Jacksonville we're talking about after all.
Indianapolis: I had a huge preview for the Colts ready to go, then today (8/2) I hear Carson Wentz is going to have surgery on his foot injury, putting him out of commission for several weeks. Needless to say, this could blow a massive hole in Indy's entire season. Yes he's coming back, but how healthy will he be, physically and mentally?
Reocord prediction: 12-5 (created before the Wentz injury), 1st in the AFC South
Whole team: The idea of breaking down both sides of the ball separately is crushing to me right now. the team will be without their franchise QB for at least the first quarter of the season, which will be a massive blow throughout their locker room. Yes, the offense has a ton of talent, especially on the offensive line and in the backfield. The defense continues to improve year-in and year-out as well, but without a solid option at QB (sorry Jacob Eason, that is NOT you), the colts could be taken to the glue factory sooner rather than later (if you think this joke is in bad taste then maybe you should do something about how we treat horses rather than get mad at me).
Hopefully the Colts can tread water long enough to get Wentz back in time to take over the division. Thankfully, the AFC South is going to be absolutely maddening this year, which makes it easy to take advantage of. The biggest variable is how will Wentz be able to handle the mental side of coming back after all that he's been through recently?
Only time will tell.
Houston: Oh sweet Jesus it's a dumpster fire. Much like Indy, I just feel like I can't comment much on this team... but for completely different reasons. They have Deshaun Watson playing scout team safety while he works through his legal issues... not to mention while he still tries to get traded out of the organization. Their offensive depth is so bad that CBS Sports doesn't even list a 2nd Wide Receiver for them. Tyrod Taylor is a nice QB, but just not good enough to come over the sheer lack of talent that this roster has.
I mean nothing by this, but who the hell is David Culley? The teams new head coach is a complete unknown. For all I know he could be the worlds best head coach, or he could be awful. It will be impossible to tell unless this team somehow, someway makes it to the playoffs. He was the Ravens passing coordinator and wide receivers coach last year, and as most people know, Baltimore receivers weren't looked upon too fondly.
Don't even get me started on the defense. No seriously, don't, because I don't know a thing about them. I know the name Whitney Mercilus solely because Mercilus is the greatest name for a football player I've ever heard, but I'd be lying if I said I actually knew how he was as a player. I would take the over in a lot of Texans games this season, just because the defense looks that bad to me.
Record prediction: 2-15, 4th in the AFC South
Tennessee: The Titans will likely be one of the must infuriating teams to watch this season. Why, you ask? Tennessee will be good enough to win several games, including a couple games they shouldn't, but at the same time bad enough to lose just as many games, including some they have no business losing. Losing Arthur Smith to the Falcons leaves one of the biggest questions this offseason has created. Is Ryan Tannehill really as good as he's been the past few years, or was Smith that good at covering up his deficiencies as his OC? Good luck Nashville, you're gonna need it... and some Tennessee whiskey.
Record prediction: 8-9, 2nd in the AFC South
Offense: The Titans offense is once again headlined by all-world running back Derrick Henry. Many pundits expect Henry to carry the load again this season, and I tend to agree with them. I do have questions though on how long he can keep this up. Running backs have a short shelf-life in this league, and while he has been the exception to the rule so far, father time is 99% undefeated (except Tom Brady, ugh). The passing game needs to be more consistent this season to help lighten his load, and to keep opposing defenses on their toes.
This leads back to Tannehill. Clearly, he is better than his tenure in Miami showed him to be. The real question though is how much better? He has yet another new OC in Todd Downing, and it's uncertain if he can get as much out of him as Arthur Smith did this past year. The receiving core replaced Corey Davis with the ghost of Julio Jones, and they'll try to replace the loss of Jonnu Smith with something called an Anthony Firkser. While the Davis loss hurts, Jones will make up for a lot of it, even if he isn't close to his peak anymore. The problem will be the tight end position. Jonnu is way better than most gave him credit for, it's just tough to stand out when playing in Nashville. Will Tannehill have a good safety blanket this year? My honest though is no.
Defense: Oh man this defense. I see another tough year for them continuing their pass rushing woes. Adding Bud Dupree at LB and Janoris Jenkins in the secondary is nice, but if they can't get any pressure on the opposing QB, which was a BIG issue for them last year, they'll be in deep trouble. None of the names on their depth chart inspire me enough to even mention them, let alone dive into detail. It can't help but lead to one huge question for me.
If Mike Vrabel is a defensive guy, and he is, why can't he get this side of the ball figured out? This alone is why I feel the Titans will have a season full of peaks and valleys, causing them to just miss out on the playoffs. Hopefully next year's draft will be defense heavy for them.
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