Coming into this year the AFC North will be one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL. Cleveland and Baltimore are the two top contenders, Cincy could take a step forward depending on how Joe Burrow returns from injury, and Pittsburgh is in the middle of its most confusing offseason I can recall.
So let's see what kind of prediction I can come up with...
Baltimore: The Ravens are primed for a very interesting season. Things we're looking great this offseason until Lamar Jackson came down with his second case of COVID (go get vaccinated people, it's not that hard). Nobody knows how he'll come back from this, especially since is the first case I can remember of a player of significance getting the virus for a second time. Moving away from Jackson, the defensive side of the ball has a lot more questions that normal for a Ravens team. Things could be very different this year with the offense carrying a heavier than normal load.
Record Prediction: 13-4, 2nd in the AFC North
Offense: So as I mentioned there are a few questions that need answering in Charm City this year. How will Jackson perform coming back from the virus, and how will he perform in the passing game in general? The addition of Rashad Bateman and Sammy Watkins have improved the receiving situation enough that the onus is now on Jackson to deliver the goods. He got a bit of a break last year due to a perceived lack of talent, but with Bateman, Watkins, Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown, there's no room for excuses this year. Even with the virus.
Oh... the running game will be dynamic as always, but we all kind of expect that, right?
Defense: The back end of Baltimore's defense (Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Chuck Clark and Deshon Elliott) look like the strength* of this unit, while the pass rush leaves a lot to wonder about. If Calais Campbell can stay healthy for the whole season, and if Justin Houston has anything left in the tank this should help a lot with getting after the quarterback. However, Patrick Queen needs to take a huge leap forward this year to meet the normal Baltimore standards after a rough rookie season.
One other concern to me is a lack of star power in the unit. I may know several names like Tyus Bowser, Pernell McPhee and Derek Wolfe, but I went to college just outside of Baltimore, and live very close to the city as well. A lot of my familiarity is based on proximity, not an abundance of top end play from these guys. Losing Matt Judon to New England is somewhat of a loss for Baltimore, but even he was iffy at times, getting a lot of his production on plays where he just wasn't blocked. The Ravens defense of 2000 just isn't walking the door this season.
*Can Jimmy Smith stay healthy too?
Cincinnati: This is a make or break year for Zac Taylor with the Bengals. Joe Burrow is coming off a major knee injury, the offense is in desperate need of a running game and the defense needs to become a true AFC North defense if the Queen City wants to even sniff the crown.
Record Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in the AFC North
Offense: So we all know what the biggest question for the Bengals this year. Can Joe Burrow bounce back from his knee surgery, and can his offensive line keep him upright for a whole year? The team choosing Ja'Marr Chase with their first round pick is great for Burrow's familiarity with receivers, but if he doesn't have time to get the ball out then the familiarity won't matter one bit. I've looked into the line unit, and instead of boring everyone to death, I'll keep it short and say I found them... uninspiring. That doesn't bode well for Burrow's confidence, which already appears to be shaky coming off knee surgery. Most know he was a one-year wonder at LSU, I certainly hope that's not the case in the NFL.
Oh yeah! The running game! It was so awful last year I almost forgot it existed. Wait... the offensive line. If they don't inspire me to keep Burrow upright, how can I expect them to open up any running room for Joe Mixon. How many years does Mixon have of getting absolutely stonewalled before he just can't perform anymore? Too many questions, not enough answers.
Defense: The Bengals defense was pretty... pretty bad last year. Reading through their depth chart, D.J. Reader is the only name that really popped out to me until... Eli Apple is still in the league?? Who knew. Oh look, Larry Ogunjobi is on this team too, but he came over from Cleveland and if the Browns of all teams (prior to recent years) are letting you go what does that really say about you as a player? Needless to say, the Bengals aren't full of household names and I don't expect that change this year. The reason I have the Bengals going 6-11 is due to a soft schedule. The defensive unit alone is reason enough to have coach Taylor filing for unemployment after the season.
Cleveland: The Browns are good! No seriously, the Cleveland Browns are good! Last year won't just be a one-hit wonder in eastern Ohio. With Kevin Stefanski at the helm, and two-headed monster in the running game, a much improved defense, and a tame Baker Mayfield, the Browns look like the third best team in the AFC behind Kansas City and Buffalo, which is no small feat. Especially with how the Browns have been as a franchise since their reincarnation.
Record prediction: 14-3, 1st in the AFC North
Offense: Man oh man few units in the NFL excite me like the Browns do. Baker Mayfield is in a prove-it kind of season, which means he'll be extra on his game to make sure he secures the bag next offseason. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form a frightening duo for opposing defenses. If the offense can figure out how to incorporate a (hopefully) healthy Odell Beckham Jr. without sacrificing Mayfield's efficiency, the Brown's should hit the over in every game.
Let's not forget the big uglies up front. Jedrick Wills, Joel Bitonio, JC Tretter, Wyatt Teller, and Jack Conklin all eat defensive lineman for breakfast. They may have to cover for Mayfield running himself into trouble every now and then, but there are few units I would want to take on that task than this one. O-line units never get enough love, and I'm guilty of that as well by just not knowing enough about units across the league. But this unit, this unit is going to be real fun to watch all year.
Defense: Easily the Achilles heel of the Browns last year, the defense will go from being much maligned to stout. Jadeveon Clowney stole the headlines of offseason additions, but John Johnson at Free Safety is an incredible signing for the Browns. The fact that the Rams let Johnson get away would normally say a lot about a player, but this time it says a lot about LA and their salary cap troubles. I mean, a player willingly left Los Angeles to go to Cleveland.... Cleveland!
I also can't forget about mainstays like Myles Garrett Denzel Ward. Normally I struggle to say I know names of good players on a defense, but Cleveland is different. This unit is GOOD, and I can't wait to watch how their season unfolds.
Pittsburgh: This is going to be an unusual year for Pittsburgh. Normally one of the most consistent franchises in the entire NFL, let alone the NFC North, I can't help but predict a really down year for Mike Tomlin and crew. The city of Pittsburgh seems split on this, but it's long past time for Ben Roethlisberger to retire, and the rest of the team (excluding wide receivers) need a complete revamping. It isn't the norm for the Steelers to act this way, but I feel like next offseason will see a big purge and replenish of the roster because of the 2021-22 season.
Record Prediction: 4-13, 4th in the AFC North
Offense: Oh man where do I begin. I guess I'll start with QB. Big Ben is no longer the player he once was. He might be able to start the season off strong, but no longer has the ability to sustain a full season of quality play. It won't help him that calling his offensive line less than stellar this year would be more than generous. Will he be able to get the ball out quick enough to save his own health? Will he work well with Matt Canada at OC who wants to run a lot more play action than Ben is used to? Frankly, I don't think so. Choosing Najee Harris with their first round pick this year seems rather dubious knowing just how bad the line will be.
The Wide Receivers could have a very dominant season... if Ben could get them the ball. I want someone like Chase Claypool to have another strong year, I just don't see it happening.
Defense: This defense is old and well... just not very good. TJ Watt is their best pass rusher, and that's a very good option to have, but after losing Bud Depree to the Titans in free agency, I have to wonder how much of a pass rush the Steelers can generate. The D-line was once very good, but Cam Heyward struggles to make it through a full season (and is old), Tyson Alualu is a nice player, but not anything fantastic, and Stephon Tuitt is just kind okay as a starter.
My big fear is the secondary. Minkah Fitzpatrick will cover up A LOT of holes for the defense, but Joe Haden is getting up there in years, Cameron Sutton is still looking to have a breakout year, and I just can't bank on that happening, and the franchise declined Terrell Edmunds fifth-year option, which tells me all I need to know about how they view him. The offense won't be able to put up a ton of points, putting a big strain on the defensive unit this year, and I just can't see them keeping the boat afloat.
Cleveland winning the division and Pittsburgh in the basement... what a time to be alive.
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