Where most divisions in the NFL have some air of unpredictability to them, I feel as if the NFC North will be quite the opposite this season. Green Bay has owned this division for the majority of my lifetime, and I don't see that changing, especially with Aaron Rodgers back in camp*.
*This really shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone.
The most fun this division will have to offer is who will take 2nd and 3rd as I think 1st and 4th are basically guaranteed at this point. That said, let's take a look at how the teams stack up!
Chicago: Dare I say that the Bears could be fun this season? Maybe not fun in the sense of being high quality, and more of a roller-coaster where nobody knows what will happen one week to the next. Bringing on Justin Fields should be a major upgrade at QB, even if he does spend the first few weeks sitting behind Andy Dalton. Not to mention Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace both sitting on seats as hot as the sun, a lot could happen in the windy city this year. I admit I don't foresee a ton of wins, but that has more to do with their schedule, which will not be kind to them.
Record Prediction: 6-11, 2nd in the NFC North
Offense: All hail the savior that is Justin Fields! Well, maybe not yet, but of all the QBs taken in this year's draft Fields was in my top 3 next to Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance. There is a prevailing theory around the league that QBs from Ohio State don't translate well to the NFL, but Fields looks like the exception to the rule. If we compare him to the most recent Buckeye QB to make the transition, Dwayne Haskins, there's a few things that jump right off the page as to why this is the case. Fields is more talented than Haskins, and knows how to use it, he has also shown himself to be much more mature than Haskins even in such a short period of time, and he doesn't have to deal with going to the quarterback slaughterhouse that is the Washington Football Team.
How Chicago chooses to play Fields this season will be key. The offensive line isn't great, and could be problematic for a rookie learning on the job. Hopefully Matt Nagy is smart enough to start Andy Dalton week 1 against the Rams instead of letting Fields get eaten alive by Aaron Donald. Speaking of Nagy, maybe he'll also turn his brain on when he puts Fields in and utilize the Bears dual threat backfield with David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen to relieve some of the pressure. Chicago has a nasty habit of getting away from their running game, which would be costly to Fields' development.
Thankfully, the Bears have an elite talent at Wide Receiver in Allen Robinson. There is a bit of a drop-off after that, but I feel like Marquise Goodwin will surprise a lot of people. When he was in San Francisco, and the 49ers actually managed a modicum of consistency at their QB position, Goodwin was a solid all around tool in that offense. With Robinson being the go to target both for Fields, and for opposing defenses to key on, Goodwin's presence could provide a good outlet to work with throughout the year. Normally, that kind of outlet is a tight end, I just don't know if Cole Kmet is the answer for them here.
Defense: Guess what Chicago? Your defense might not have to keep saving your bacon this year! Isn't that great?
Getting serious, the Bears defense is likely the best in the division. It's been hard to see it that way the past few seasons because they've been run ragged having to make up for several deficiencies on the offense. The key to their success has and will remain the health of Akiem Hicks. Hicks is an absolute beast on the line, opening up a ton of opportunities for other players like Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith to take advantage of.
With a quality pass rush, the secondary should have some holes covered-up as the weaker part of the unit. Desmond Trufant is a proven vet, but far from a shutdown corner, I know very little about Jaylon Johnson and would need to see him prove it before I say he can be a game break, and both starting safeties currently have injury concerns. If Fields is what I think he can be for the offense, they should also be able to get a break by not having to be on the field too often.
Detroit: Fans in the motor city should have very low expectations this season; not that this idea is anything new to the teams history. Matthew Stafford is no longer there, replaced by Jared Goff, who just isn't the same kind of caliber player. Not to mention Dan "bite your knees off" Campbell looks like more of a clown than he does a head coach. Does anyone in the organization want to call Jim Caldwell? At least the team was decent during his tenure.
Record Prediction: 1-16, 4th in the NFC North
Offense: I've already mentioned the Lions trading for Goff, who is bound for some culture shock now that he is no longer in California. The one saving grace for him is that the team should have a stellar offensive line that can keep Goff upright since calling him immobile would almost be too kind. The major problem is that he really doesn't have much to throw to. Tyrell Williams is their best receiving option followed by Breshad Perriman. Neither inspire confidence, that's all I can say. Thankfully, TJ Hockenson is a high level tight end, but I forsee a lot of defenses eliminating him as the biggest threat the Lions possess.
I am curious to see how this running game plays this season. The O-line should be able to create some good openings for D'Andre Swift, and Jamaal Williams should prove to be a much bigger loss for Green Bay than most Packer fans anticipate. What I don't know is how often they'll be able to run the ball! I expect a lot of blowouts, which means the passing game will get a lot of action as the team tries to play catchup on the scoreboard.
Defense: Detroit's defense needs to step up in a big way this season. Michael Brockers comes over the Rams, getting the opportunity to show what he can be without lining up next to Aaron Donald. The rest of the D-line looks like a bunch of JAGs, but if the Lions hope to have any success this year, these guys will need to turn themselves into household names, fast.
The back half of the defense is headlined by Jamie Collins and Jeff Ojudah... which isn't great. Collins has yet to prove that he can be the stalwart of a defensive unit outside of New England, and Okudah spent more time on a grill getting cooked last season than he did playing defense. I don't know if either of them can make up for what happened in 2020, and I am leaning towards failure over success. If the D-line can't create a consistent pass rush the linebackers and secondary are in for a long season struggling to keep up.
Green Bay: Nobody really though Aaron Rodgers was going anywhere, right? I mean, seriously. There was no way he had a chance of getting out of Green Bay this offseason. He had too many years left on his contract, the Packers aren't dumb enough to trade him away, and Rodgers wasn't about to give up $32mil to retire! the Pack will once again be the class of the NFC North, but this year will be different. Even with Rodgers there, all of the drama will absolutely affect the team negatively and their record will show for it.
Record Prediction: 9-8, 1st in the NFC North
Offense: Instead of focusing on the obvious with Rodgers and Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones, I'm going to use this section to key in on one position in particular: Center.
Corey Linsley is gone, having signed with the Chargers in the offseason. The current depth chart has second year player Elgton Jenkins taking over as the QB of the offensive line. Jenkins played in all 18 games for the Packers last year... at left guard. Now he has to take over as center and learn to work with Aaron Rodgers along with the rest of his line mates when tensions are already high. Will the 25 year-old be able to coordinate protections and blocking schemes well enough? Can he nail down all of the audibles and work well with Rodgers' mobility? Only time can tell, but what I can say is that the success of Green Bay's season rests on his shoulders more than anybody else, including their quarterback.
Defense: The Pack's defense was actually really good last year; they were just easily overshadowed by Rodgers and his MVP season. The Smith duo return the headline the linebacking group, Jaire Alexander is a top-notch type of corner capable of running with the best receivers the league has to offer, and Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos provide a lot of versatility in their safety positions. The questions come along the D-line and their second corner position.
With Za'Darius and Preston Smith helping with the pass rush, the D-line will get a lot of help. However, I don't know if I can really see Dean Lowry, Kenny Clark and Kingsley Keke as a group of road graters that will put fear into opponents offensive units. I don't see much production coming out of here, but maybe they'll be good at clogging up run lanes?
Everyone remembers Kevin King getting torched at the end of the first half in the NFC Championship right? Also how he was a clear liability at key moments throughout the season? So we can all agree that the Pack need first round draft pick Eric Stokes to step up and take over as a book-end to Alexander? Good. If Stokes turns into even just an above-average corner, Green Bay's secondary looks lethal this year. If he doesn't... well let's just hope Tom Brady can't find wide open receivers anymore.
Minnesota: The Vikings are one of the most exhausting franchises to talk about in the NFL. They had a couple seasons recently where they had incredible playoff victories, only to be trounced in the following round. The team knows that Kirk Cousins is not the long-term solution they hoped he would be, and picked up Kellen Mond in the second-round of this year's draft. Now, there isn't a chance Mond is ready to play this season, which means Cousins leads the charge as he has in years past. I guess the owners in Minneapolis are ok with continued mediocrity?
Record Prediction: 6-11. 3rd in the NFC North
Offense: Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. That's the review. No, seriously, with Cousins remaining as QB1 those two will have to shoulder the entire offensive load for the Vikings to have any success. Yes, Adam Thielen is also a good option, but he's not a game breaker like these two. Can Cook stay healthy? Can Jefferson reproduce what he did in his rookie season? I don't know if either of them will follow their captains lead and go walking to the locker room yelling, "you like that?" very often this year.
Defense: This unit is one of the top units in the league that NEED a bounce back season after how they performed last year. Mike Zimmer is known as a defensive coach, but this side of the ball was atrocious by their standards. Thankfully, they were able to sign Patrick Peterson who, while no longer in his prime, is still an elite corner and his leadership should help bring things back to normal. Add that to the usual list of suspects, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith and Xavier Woods, the defense had better be ready to carry the load this season, otherwise heads are bound to roll.
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